Montana St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	283.0
Current RPI:	283
Expected SOS:	291
Current SOS:	291
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	223
Expected OOC SOS:	283

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	283.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Montana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	89-80	W	100%
11-13	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	81-73	L	0%
11-18	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	71-58	L	0%
11-21	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	N	64-74	W	100%
11-22	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	N	82-88	W	100%
11-26	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	80-67	L	0%
12-2	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	64-68	W	100%
12-5	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	75-48	L	0%
12-9	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	69-91	L	0%
12-18	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	79-65	W	100%
12-21	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	84-71	L	0%
12-28	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	99-104	W	100%
12-30	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	73-76	W	100%
1-4	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	76-64	W	100%
1-6	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	79-68	W	100%
1-11	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	93-74	L	0%
1-13	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	87-68	L	0%
1-20	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	52-67	L	0%
1-25	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	75-77	L	0%
1-27	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	69-66	W	100%
2-1	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	75-74	L	0%
2-3	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	86-63	L	0%
2-8	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	92-76	W	100%
2-10	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	77-80	L	0%
2-15	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	88-78	L	0%
2-17	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	84-79	L	0%
2-24	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	90-63	L	0%
3-1	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	78-101	L	0%
3-3	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	92-95	L	0%
3-6	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	N	76-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Montana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Montana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Montana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Montana St.	BSky	26.39	26.39	37.12	37.12	-6.80	-6.80
North Dakota	BSky	5.72	5.72	29.63	29.63	-2.33	-2.33
Montana	BSky	4.36	4.36	75.86	75.86	2.25	2.25
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.23	4.23	62.07	62.07	1.02	1.02
Southern Utah	BSky	4.14	4.14	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Portland St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.11	4.11	14.29	14.29	-2.94	-2.94
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.08	4.08	10.71	10.71	-3.21	-3.21
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	3.42	3.42	22.22	22.22	-1.90	-1.90
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.72	2.72	54.84	54.84	0.26	0.26
Weber St.	BSky	2.66	2.66	59.26	59.26	0.49	0.49
Idaho St.	BSky	2.61	2.61	40.74	40.74	-0.48	-0.48
Idaho	BSky	2.61	2.61	67.86	67.86	0.93	0.93
Denver	Sum	1.84	1.84	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.83	1.83	68.97	68.97	0.70	0.70
Utah St.	MWC	1.81	1.81	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Fresno St.	MWC	1.75	1.75	62.07	62.07	0.42	0.42
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.70	1.70	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.69	1.69	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Binghamton	AE	1.67	1.67	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Milwaukee	Horz	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.40	0.40	73.33	73.33	0.19	0.19
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.37	0.37	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.34	0.34	14.29	14.29	-0.24	-0.24
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.28	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.26	0.26	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.26	0.26	80.00	80.00	0.15	0.15
UNLV	MWC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
San Jose St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	10.34	10.34	-0.15	-0.15
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	16.13	16.13	-0.11	-0.11
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00